Artificial Intelligence (AI) has created uncertainty. This uncertainty of the impact that AI could have on jobs, people, and life as we know it is often met with sensationalized suggestions such as Elon Musk’s assertion that AI is humanity’s biggest threat (Higgins, 2017). However, I believe that AI is a technology and merely a tool; it is not a force of nature. Hence, as a resident of Ontario who works in the manufacturing industry, I asked:
“What might we expect of the manufacturing activities of Ontario's Transportation Equipment Manufacturers (OTEMs) during the emergence of AI in the next 15 years?”
I examined this question through a literature survey, scenario planning, and impact analysis.
I developed a scenario-planning matrix that included the two most critical uncertain drivers surrounding OTEMs’ business activities in Ontario. These drivers were AI’s ability to significantly disrupt the human labour requirement and the outsourcing of manufacturing activities. I explored the relationship between these two drivers and how scenarios could be used to develop resilient strategies. Next steps included using the uncovered parameters in a strategic planning process for OTEMs to develop strategies and create a culture that embraces resilience.
Key words: AI, manufacturing, automation, Ontario, scenario-planning tool