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Anticipation in Emergency Management: Shifting from Crisis Response to Shaping Future Resilience

Dupont, Donna (2020) Anticipation in Emergency Management: Shifting from Crisis Response to Shaping Future Resilience. [MRP]

Item Type: MRP
Creators: Dupont, Donna
Abstract:

There is a need for the field of emergency/disaster management to shift from managing disasters, to managing current and future risks and cultivation of resilience-building as core targets to be reached by 2030. This is an evolutionary paradigm shift. Disasters frequently exacerbate social inequalities and existing power dynamics, and exposure and vulnerability are on the increase. Extreme weather events and the risk of failure of mitigation and adaptation by government and businesses are growing concerns. Anticipating future risks and engaging in disaster risk reduction behaviour is critical for human survival. Paradigm shifts are a conceptual transformation, and can be viewed as a prototype for revolutionary reorientation. This research project presents a paradigm analysis based on a survey completed by those working in emergency management. This report identifies four archetypal patterns with systemic anomalies, explores postnormal potentiality and levels of uncertainty as a diagnostic to highlight emerging policy issues, and opportunities to evolve the system’s structure towards stability and building resilience. In addition, the internal paradigm perspective was explored to understand the anticipatory narrative, futures literacy and mental model. This report introduces a potential pathway for a transformed paradigm, with discussion for change that proposes a first step to expand perspectives by building new mindsets and skill-sets to support the emerging paradigm of resilience. This report concludes on the critical need to shift from reactive thinking and actions, to consciously proactive thinking in order to address system anomalies, and reimagine new potential and possibilities to transform structures to support long-term fundamental solutions.

Date: 2020
Uncontrolled Keywords: resilience-building, paradigm, paradigm shift, anticipation, futures literacy, mental model, systemic anomalies, postnormal, uncertainty, transformation, emergency management, mindsets, skill-sets
Divisions: Graduate Studies > Strategic Foresight and Innovation
Date Deposited: 22 Jan 2021 04:42
Last Modified: 22 Jan 2021 04:42
URI: http://openresearch.ocadu.ca/id/eprint/3182

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