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Foresight Playback: Mapping the Future of Industrial Regions by Learning from Historical Cycles of Innovation

Halverson, Neal (2019) Foresight Playback: Mapping the Future of Industrial Regions by Learning from Historical Cycles of Innovation. [MRP]

Item Type: MRP
Creators: Halverson, Neal
Abstract:

This paper explores how mapping historical cycles of innovation and finance can inform the future of innovation for industrial clusters. This method is discussed in combination with strategic frameworks for increased cluster survival — such as the GEMS model for cluster adaptation — and the Three Horizons foresight methodology that can complement the historical cycles method. Three stages of cluster development are described and charted for five regional clusters , detailing factors contributing to their rise and fall which can help firms and clusters understand their place along a life cycle. Beneficial agglomeration externalities are also detailed for the case studies. Kondratieff, Schumpeter, Elliot waves and the Fourth Turning generational cycles are brought together to show how cycles of innovation and decline can be mapped over long periods, adding to the insights that other foresight methodologies can bring to cluster planning.

Date: 13 May 2019
Uncontrolled Keywords: Strategic Foresight Kondratieff Waves Schumpeter Waves Elliot Waves Fourth Turning Economic Cycles Innovation Forecasting Future Studies Three Horizons Industrial Clusters Industrial Districts National Cash Register Company NCR Detroit automobile industry Pope Manufacturing Company Dayton, Ohio Silicon Valley Sixth Wave Kondratieff Winter Design
Divisions: Graduate Studies > Strategic Foresight and Innovation
Date Deposited: 13 May 2019 14:31
Last Modified: 13 May 2019 14:31
URI: http://openresearch.ocadu.ca/id/eprint/2548

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