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Heuristics and Human Decision - Making in Strategic Foresight: Behavioural Insights for an Improved Foresight Framework

Lahn, Margret (Peg) Heuristics and Human Decision - Making in Strategic Foresight: Behavioural Insights for an Improved Foresight Framework. [MRP]

Item Type: MRP
Creators: Lahn, Margret (Peg)
Abstract:

Drawing on literature from diverse fields of study on human perceptions of risk and decision making under uncertainty, this investigation highlights some of the behavioural insights and implications that emerge for strategic foresight and scenario planning. From an extensive review and synthesis of the literature, themes in mental shortcuts, heuristics and biases that influence decision making and perceptions of probabilities were generated and organized for further exploration through a concept mapping approach. Using narrative, findings were applied to and illuminated through a contemporary case study of proposed nuclear waste storage in an Ontario community. Behavioural insights were applied to two strategic foresight frameworks, and recommended improvements to existing models were presented and discussed.

Uncontrolled Keywords: behavioral insight; heuristic; cognitive bias; decision making; risk; uncertainty; foresight; scenario; nuclear
Divisions: Graduate Studies > Strategic Foresight and Innovation
Related URLs:
Date Deposited: 27 Nov 2014 18:41
Last Modified: 27 Nov 2014 18:41
URI: http://openresearch.ocadu.ca/id/eprint/121

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